How to Easily Forecast Restaurant Sales

If you’re still guessing how much money you’ll make next week, you’re probably not forecasting. Instead, you’re just hoping. Today I’m diving into one of the most powerful tools in your management toolbox: sales forecasting. This is a critical skill that transforms guesswork into strategy and helps you run a more profitable, efficient restaurant. I’m going to show you how to create a simple, consistent forecasting process that gives you control over your business.

Start with historical data

Forecasting starts by looking backward. Review your sales from the same period last year to identify patterns. If your restaurant is seasonal or has consistent trends month to month, you’ll want to look at both last year and last month to predict what’s coming.

Historical data is your baseline. But we’re not stopping there.

Consider external factors

Now adjust for what’s happening around you. What’s going on in your town? Any big events? Holidays? Weather shifts?

For example, I live in Phoenix, Arizona, where even a sprinkle keeps people home. We get these crazy dust storms — called haboobs —and they can tank your sales for the day. When I look back and see a sales dip, I check to see if a storm hit. If it did, I won’t let that skew my forecast for the same week this year.

Maybe you had a huge party that booked half your restaurant last year. If that’s not happening this year, don’t expect the same numbers. That’s why you should be keeping a sales log that notes more than just dollars. Jot down the weather, local events and anything unusual that might’ve impacted sales.

Forecast by day and shift

Start breaking your forecast down by the day and even by the shift. Use your POS data to track daily sales and plug that into what I call a DSR (daily sales report) tracker. This lets you see which days are busiest and helps you schedule accordingly.

Even better? When you go deeper into your forecasting, you can look at peak times during those shifts to stagger start times. That’s how you staff efficiently and avoid blowing your labor budget.

Use a rolling average

A rolling average helps you smooth out anomalies and spot trends. Take your sales from the past four weeks and calculate an average. If you don’t have big seasonality, this gives you a clear view of what’s happening right now.

Let’s say you just added karaoke on Thursdays and it’s boosting sales. That spike should show up in your rolling average and this gives you the data to prove it’s working.

Align sales forecasts with labor and inventory

Forecasting isn’t just about knowing your sales. It’s about using those numbers to make better decisions, especially when it comes to labor and inventory.

For example, I teach a system called the Restaurant Checkbook Guardian. It uses your sales forecast, your DSR tracker, your food cost budget and what you’ve already spent to tell your managers how much they can spend on the next order.

If you order too much food, you risk spoilage, waste, theft, which is lost money. If you order too little, you’ll 86 items and lose sales. Forecasting helps you get it just right.

Same goes for labor. With my Restaurant Payroll Guardian system, managers can see how many labor dollars and hours they have to spend based on your forecast. That means no more guessing or praying you’re busy. You stagger start times, avoid paying people to stand around and stay on budget.

Let’s say you’ve got 350 hours for the kitchen next week. Monday might be prep-heavy with low sales, so you run a higher labor cost. But on Friday, you’re packed and efficient, running a much lower labor cost. It all balances out because you planned for it.

Use tools to make it easier

You don’t have to do this all manually. There are great tools out there to help.

I’ve got a spreadsheet called the Sales Forecast Generator that calculates a 12-month or 13-period forecast. Each month, you plug in your actuals, and it adjusts the forecast by day. It’s a quick way to check if your numbers are in line before you order or schedule.

Prefer software? Tools like 5-Out.io are top-tier, especially if you’re not super seasonal. It integrates with your POS, predicts sales and even recommends prep levels. SevenShifts has also come a long way with forecasting. And MarginEdge is jumping into the sales forecasting game, combining it with their inventory and invoice tools.

No matter which method you choose — spreadsheet or software — you must forecast. You must have a system, a process, a way to make your best-educated guess at what sales are going to be.

Forecasting is about preparation, not perfection

Here’s the bottom line: forecasting isn’t about being psychic. It’s about being prepared.

With a solid forecast, you reduce waste, improve scheduling, hit your food and labor budgets, and make better decisions across the board. That’s what restaurant prosperity looks like.

Be sure to visit my YouTube channel for more helpful restaurant management video tips.